October, 06 2023, 03:21pm EDT
Jobs Jump in September, but Wage Growth Moderates
Analysis by economist Dean Baker
The establishment survey showed an increase of 336k jobs in September. The prior two months’ numbers were also revised sharply higher, bringing the average for the last three months to 266k. In spite of the strong job growth, wage growth actually slowed somewhat, with the average hourly wage rising at just a 3.4 percent annual rate over the last three months. This is well below the average for 2018-2019, when inflation was under the Fed’s 2.0 percent target.
In spite of the strong job growth, unemployment remained unchanged at 3.8 percent. After the huge 736k jump in the size of the labor force reported for August, the September increase was a much more modest 90k. These huge fluctuations in monthly changes are largely the result of measurement error. Over the last year, the labor force has increased by 3,310k, an average of 276k a month.
Job Growth Strongest in Sectors Still Hit by Pandemic
Job gains were widely spread across sectors, but the largest gains were in the sectors that took the biggest hit from the pandemic. The category of leisure and hospitality added 96k jobs, accounting for almost 30 percent of the month’s job gains. Employment in this category is still down by 184k (1.1 percent) from its pre-pandemic peak.
Within this category, restaurants added 60.7k jobs, putting employment above its pre-pandemic peak for the first time. The arts, entertainment, and recreation sector added 19.3k jobs, which also put it above its pre-pandemic peak. The hotel sector added 15.6k jobs, but employment is still 217k (10.3 percent) below its pre-pandemic peak. This is likely due to the huge growth in Airbnb and other vacation rentals over the last four years.
State governments added 29k jobs, while local governments added 38k. Employment in state governments is still down by 21k (0.4 percent) from pre-pandemic levels, while employment by local governments is down by 85k (0.6 percent) from pre-pandemic levels. There will likely be some more catchup in these sectors, but a drop in relative pay and deterioration in working conditions, notably in teaching, has made public sector jobs less attractive.
Job Growth in Cyclically Sensitive Construction and Manufacturing Still Solid
Since construction and manufacturing have always been the hardest hit sectors in a downturn, those expecting a recession always look to employment trends in these two sectors. Both are still adding jobs at a respectable pace. Construction added 11k jobs in September, while manufacturing added 17k. Even housing construction added 12.6k jobs.
The one cyclical sector that has shown job loss is credit intermediation, which has been hit by the decline in home purchases and crash of the mortgage refinancing boom. This sector lost 7.5k jobs last month. Employment is now down 61.6k (2.3 percent) from its peak in April of 2021.
Job Surge in Health Care Slows
The health care sector added 40.9k jobs, after adding an average of 68.6k jobs over the prior three months. This is still more than twice as fast as the average growth in the years before the pandemic. Nursing homes added just 2.4k jobs, while child care centers added 1.1k jobs. Employment in these two sectors is down by 154.2k (9.7 percent) and 39.4 (3.8 percent), respectively, from pre-pandemic levels.
Index of Aggregate Hours Rises 0.2 Percent
Hours growth had been lagging employment growth somewhat, as the length of the average workweek had been getting shorter. These are roughly in line for September, with the index of aggregate hours rising at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter. With GDP growth likely to be over 3.0 percent for the quarter, this would imply another quarter of strong productivity growth, although a sharp rise in self-employment (mostly incorporated self-employed) will dampen reported growth in the quarter.
Women Again Account for More than Half of Payroll Job Growth
The growth in payroll employment for women was 185k in September, putting them at 49.8 percent of total payroll employment. It will likely be several more months until they hit their peak share, which was just over 50.0 percent in some months before the pandemic.
Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 3.8 Percent
The extraordinary jump in the size of the labor force reported for August raised the possibility that the 0.3 percentage point jump was an anomaly. With the September survey showing the same number, it appears that the rise is real. This rise does seem difficult to reconcile with the extraordinary pace of job growth reported in the establishment survey.
While the overall labor force participation rate (LFPR) was unchanged, the labor force participation rate for prime-age men (25-54) rose to 89.6 percent, tying its pre-recession peak. It was unchanged for prime age women.
There was an increase of 0.1 pp in the unemployment rate for men over age 20 to 3.8 percent, coupled with a decline of 0.1 pp to 3.1 percent for women. This is the largest gap between men’s and women’s unemployment rates since September of 2013. (There were much larger gaps the other way, with women’s rate exceeding men’s rate, at the peak of the pandemic.)
Unemployment Due to Quits Edges Lower
The share of voluntary job leavers in the unemployed edged down to 12.7 percent. This is well below the peak of 15.7 percent hit earlier in the recovery. It is also below peaks above 15.0 percent reached in 2019 and 2000.
The duration measures of unemployment also increased in September, with the median duration of unemployment spells rising 0.5 weeks to 9.2 weeks, and the average duration up 1.1 weeks to 21.5 weeks. The number of people working part-time involuntarily fell by 156k, reversing most of the jump in August, however, the figure is still above lows hit last fall.
Mixed Story in September Jobs Report
The job growth reported for September was far above virtually all predictions. The prior two months’ numbers were also revised up by 119k. This goes against the general perception that job growth is slowing.
However, the slower wage growth reported in recent months is certainly not consistent with an overly tight labor market. Also, there is nothing in the household survey that would suggest the labor market is continuing to tighten. The unemployment rate, while still very low by historic standards, is 0.4 pp above its low hit in the spring. The lengthening of the duration of unemployment spells also is not consistent with a tightening of the labor market, nor is the fall in the share of voluntary job leavers among the unemployed. It would be unfortunate if the Fed overreacted to this report with further rate hikes.
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Horrific. Unjustified. Morally Wrong. But 'Unprovoked'?
'Nothing about today is "unprovoked"'
Oct 07, 2023
Horrific. Unjustified. Morally wrong. But 'unprovoked'?
After the Palestinian group Hamas launched the biggest attack on Israel in years--with many killed, hostages taken, and fighting raging--many US elected officials released statements Saturday condemning the "unprovoked" attacks.
But many others took to Twitter Saturday to ask incredulously how Israel’s continued brutal occupation of the Palestinian people cannot be considered a provocation.
75 years of ethnic cleansing
15 years of blockade
Confiscation of Palestinian lands
Pogroms on Palestinian towns
Desecration of Palestinian sacred sites
Daily raids into Palestinian homes
Constant humiliation of a entire people
Nothing about today is "unprovoked."
Writer Caitlin Johnstone tweeted: "It's clear now that whenever the western political/media class starts bleating the word "unprovoked" in unison, you know with absolute certainty that whatever they're talking about was massively provoked."
*. *. *
Hamas attacks on civilian targets in Israel are completely unjustified. The Biden administration is totally wrong, however, to say they are "unprovoked." Israel has been killing many scores of Palestinian civilians, including children, in recent months.— Stephen Zunes (@Stephen Zunes) 1696689417
I keep seeing the Hamas attack described as "unprovoked," as if Israel has not been occupying, dispossessing, blockading, and besieging a population. The attack is morally wrong but let's be honest about what its causes are.— Nathan J Robinson (@Nathan J Robinson) 1696706184
75 years of ethnic cleansing.\n15 years of blockade.\nConfiscation of Palestinian lands.\nPogroms on Palestinian towns.\nDesecration of Palestinian sacred sites.\nDaily raids into Palestinian homes.\nConstant humiliation of a entire people.\n\nNothing about today is \u201cunprovoked.\u201d— Amer Zahr (@Amer Zahr) 1696693591
Today\u2019s attacks on Israel are horrific\u2014especially since innocent women and children are involved. Today\u2019s attacks, however, were not unprovoked. \n\nPraying for peace. \ud83d\udc94— Nick Laparra (@Nick Laparra) 1696707765
And here are a sampling of statements released Saturday by US elected officials and politicians calling the attacks "unprovoked":
Statement from the White House on Israel:— philip lewis (@philip lewis) 1696684125
My statement on the violent, unprovoked and despicable terrorist attack by Hamas against the State of Israel.— Hakeem Jeffries (@Hakeem Jeffries) 1696687757
This ignominious, unprovoked, and barbaric attack on Israel must be met with world condemnation and unequivocal support for the Jewish state\u2019s right to self-defense. We must provide Israel with whatever it needs to defend itself \u2014 now. As President, I\u2019ll make sure that our policy\u2026— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@Robert F. Kennedy Jr) 1696695042
I forcefully condemn these cowardly, horrifying, unprovoked attacks on Israel by Hamas. \n\nAttacking innocent civilians is particularly despicable and reflects the craven behavior of this terrorist group. \n\nI unequivocally stand with the people of Israel now, and always.— Senator John Fetterman (@Senator John Fetterman) 1696689464
I unequivocally condemn Hamas\u2019 horrific, unprovoked attacks and call on all parties to take steps to prevent civilian harm. Israel has a right to defend itself, and the United States stands ready to offer our support.— Congresswoman Sara Jacobs (@Congresswoman Sara Jacobs) 1696692875
I am horrified by the unprovoked, heinous attacks against Israel by Hamas\u2014a terrorist organization. I stand in strong support of our ally Israel and the Israeli people as they fight to defend themselves and protect their sovereignty.— Mondaire Jones (@Mondaire Jones) 1696685680
The unprovoked terrorist attacks by Hamas against Israeli citizens are alarming and horrifying. My thoughts are with the victims and their families during this unprecedented time. \n\nI stand with Israel and its right to defend itself from these heinous and widespread attacks.— Ruben Gallego (@Ruben Gallego) 1696687733
As a steadfast supporter and ally of Israel, I unequivocally condemn the unprovoked and unprecedented terrorist attack launched by Hamas and stand with the people of Israel as it rightly defends itself.\n\nMy statement:— Rep. Ritchie Torres (@Rep. Ritchie Torres) 1696684621
I am horrified by the attacks against the Israeli people and condemn them unequivocally. This unprovoked violence is unacceptable. Today the United States must stand beside the Israeli people on this difficult day and in the days to come.— Congresswoman Chellie Pingree \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6 (@Congresswoman Chellie Pingree \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6) 1696706022
These attacks by Hamas against Israel were heinous and unprovoked.\n\nMy thoughts are with the families of those killed, injured, and captured.\n\nI strongly condemn these attacks. The United States remains unwavering in our support for Israel and their right to self-defense.— Senator Mark Kelly (@Senator Mark Kelly) 1696691135
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Netanyahu: Israel 'At War'; Media: Surprise Attack 'A Massive Intelligence Failure'
Israeli jets are bombing the Gaza Strip in retaliation
Oct 07, 2023
BREAKING NEWS. This article will be updated.
Hamas launched a surprise operation on an unprecedented scale against Israel early Saturday by land, air, and sea. Hamas’s military chief, Muhammad Deif said the operation was codenamed “Al-Aqsa Flood.”
Israeli media calls it a massive intelligence failure by Israel and the United States.
The day marks a tremendous strategic failure and defeat for Israel, even as it bombs Gaza in retaliation. The Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza says the death toll of the ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza has risen to 198, with 1,610 injured.
And Israel’s Channel 12 reports that the Israeli death toll has risen to at least 40 and more than 740 people have been injured.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Hamas would pay an “unprecedented price” and warned of severe retaliation to come after ordering an extensive mobilization of Israeli army reserves.
Hamas spokesperson Khaled Qadomi told Al Jazeera that the group’s military operation is in response to all the atrocities the Palestinians have faced over the decades. “We want the international community to stop atrocities in Gaza, against Palestinian people, our holy sites like Al-Aqsa. All these things are the reason behind starting this battle,” he said.
No this was not the biggest intelligence failure by Israel.\n\nThe biggest intel failure is to believe it can live in peace while permanently occupying another people\n\nThat is not to justify violence. But to recognize that peace & occupation never tends to coexist in the long run>>— Trita Parsi (@Trita Parsi) 1696693727
Hamas has launched \u2018Operation Al-Aqsa Flood\u2019 against Israel \u2013 the biggest armed offensive in decades.\n\nVideos show Palestinian fighters \u2018infiltrating\u2019 Israeli territory from Gaza, where they are reported to have captured Israeli soldiers \u2935\ufe0f— Al Jazeera English (@Al Jazeera English) 1696666797
A surprise operation launched from Gaza, 50 years after Egypt\u2019s October surprise caught Israel off guard, is a shocking embarrassment for Israeli security and leadership whose policy in Gaza has been an abject failure and crime against humanity.— Yousef Munayyer (@Yousef Munayyer) 1696661360
The unfolding events in Israel and Palestine are deeply alarming.\n\nWe need an immediate ceasefire and urgent de-escalation.\n\nAnd we need a route out of this tragic cycle of violence: ending the occupation is the only means of achieving a just and lasting peace.— Jeremy Corbyn (@Jeremy Corbyn) 1696681645
Gaza is a small strip of besieged, blockaded land that Israel dominates and controls, allegedly with the most sophisticated surveillance on earth, and they missed a massive land, sea, and air incursion being organized for what had to have been months, right under their noses? Odd— Michael Tracey (@Michael Tracey) 1696672565
Footage of a hamas infiltrator using a motorized hang glider to get into Israel.\n\n#Palestine #Israel #Hamas #Gaza #War #AlMayadeen #Palestine #AlAqsaFlood #\u0637\u0648\u0641\u0627\u0646_\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0635\u0649 #IsraelUnderAttack #Palestinian #IndiaWithIsrael #Palestinians #Palestina— Zain Rajpoot (@Zain Rajpoot) 1696682762
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Nearly Half of US Nutrition Board Members Have Food and Pharma Industry Ties: Report
"Millions of Americans' lives are affected by this report and it's crucial that the report tell the truth to American people and it's not degraded into another sales pitch for Big Food and Big Pharma."
Oct 06, 2023
Nearly half the members of the U.S. government panel that helps draft dietary guidelines for Americans have ties to the food, pharmaceutical, or weight loss industry, a report released this week revealed.
"Food and pharmaceutical industry actors have historically sought to influence the U.S. Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA), and have had financial ties to nutrition experts on the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee (DGAC), which reviews the latest science on diet, nutrition, and health outcomes to make recommendations for the DGA," states the report, which was authored by researchers at the advocacy group U.S. Right to Know.
"We found that 13 of 20 DGAC members had high-risk, medium-risk, or possible conflicts of interest with industry actors," the authors wrote.
Of these, nine were high- or medium-risk conflicts with companies and industry groups including Coca-Cola, the Nestlé Nutrition Institute, National Dairy Council, Weight Watchers International, Beyond Meat, the California Walnut Commission, and the National Egg Board. Big Pharma giants including Pfizer, Abbott, Novo Nordisk, and Eli Lilly are also named in the report.
U.S. Right to Know executive director Gary Ruskin toldThe Guardian that revelations like those in the report erode consumer confidence in government dietary guidelines.
"Millions of Americans' lives are affected by this report and it's crucial that the report tell the truth to American people and it's not degraded into another sales pitch for Big Food and Big Pharma," Ruskin said.
The report also notes some "encouraging findings," including that "seven members had no relationships in the past five years that met our definition" of conflicts of interest, and that "four members only had one instance" of possible conflicts.
"Surely, there is room for further improvement," the publication states. "With high-risk conflicts of interest still present on the DGAC,
the public cannot have confidence that the official dietary advice of the U.S. government is free from industry influence."
The report's authors offer recommendations for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and U.S. Department of Agriculture, including:
- Not appointing DGAC members with high-risk conflicts of interest;
- Disclosing individual members' conflicts during the last five years;
- Using a better disclosure form;
- Publishing a list of provisional appointees prior to appointment, open for public comment; and
- Including leadership roles or paid roles at conflicted nutrition organizations in disclosures of potential conflicts of interest.
The group also called on Congress to expand the Physician Payments Sunshine Act to cover the nutrition field.
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